NOAA favors a warmer-than-average winter across much of the northern U.S. and the East, and a wetter one across the South and the East Coast. Fewer very cold days usually means fewer heating hours, so many homes in the North could see a modest drop in heating use. But a warm forecast is a tilt in the odds, not a promise: cold snaps still happen, wet storms bring outages and damp, and your fuel price matters as much as the weather. Seal drafts anyway.
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What NOAA actually said
NOAA released its 2026–2027 Winter Outlook on October 16. The main driver is a very strong El Niño that has been building since summer; NOAA's Climate Prediction Center put the odds of a strong-to-very-strong event through January–March 2027 above 83%.
In plain terms, the outlook favors:
- Warmer than average: northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley and much of the East, plus Alaska.
- Wetter than average: the South, the Southwest and the East Coast. A very strong El Niño pushes the jet stream south and east, which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South.
- Drier than average: parts of the northern Rockies and the Great Lakes, Hawaii and much of Alaska.
- Equal chances: much of the Southwest and Gulf Coast states for temperature.
A seasonal outlook describes the odds for three months on average. A winter can finish warmer than normal and still have a week of brutal cold or a big snowstorm.
Estimate your winter heating bill
Estimate your winter heating bill
Why a milder winter is not automatically a cheaper one
I rent out properties and have done seven renovations, and the bills I see every winter are driven by three things: how cold it gets, what the fuel costs, and how leaky the building is. El Niño only touches the first one.
- Fuel prices can cancel out the weather. If your electricity or heating oil rate rises more than your usage falls, the bill still goes up. Our heating oil price guide covers that side.
- Wet and windy is its own cost. El Niño winters along the East Coast tend to bring more nor'easters. Wind finds every gap in old windows and doors, and damp air feels colder, so people turn the thermostat up.
- Heat pumps like mild winters. If you heat with a heat pump, warmer days are where it is most efficient, so a mild winter helps you more than it helps a resistance-heat home. Defrost cycles still increase on wet, near-freezing days.
What to do this month (cheap and reversible)
- Shrink film on the worst windows. On the single-pane and old aluminum windows in our rentals, a film kit is the cheapest upgrade I know. It also stops the whistling on stormy nights.
- Door sweeps and weatherstripping. Do the exterior doors first, then the door to an unheated garage or basement.
- Put a hygrometer in the main room. Very dry air feels colder; so does damp, clammy air. Knowing the humidity helps you set the thermostat one degree lower without feeling it.
- Insulate exposed pipes in a crawl space or garage. A mild winter forecast does not stop a single freezing night from bursting a pipe.
- Plan for outages. Wet storms mean downed lines. Know where your flashlights are.
Picks for drafts and damp
| Pick | Why | What owners complain about |
|---|---|---|
| Windows Duck Brand Window Insulation Kit (fits up to 10 windows) | The usual shrink-film kit. Owners say it is easy to put up and noticeably cuts cold air; many say it pays for itself in a season. | Tape adhesion and film thickness get mixed reviews. Clean and dry the frame well, and do it on a mild day. |
| Windows Frost King Indoor Shrink Window Kit, 9 pack | An alternative if your windows are smaller. Owners report rooms several degrees warmer at night. | More complaints about the tape letting go after a week than with Duck. Pressing the tape firmly and warming it helps. |
| Doors Vellure Door Draft Stopper (under-door sweep) | Cuts to size and sits flat, so it does not look like a draft snake. Owners say it blocks drafts well. | The adhesive does not hold on every door finish. If it peels, add a couple of small screws. |
| Door frames Holikme Weather Stripping Door Seal, 33 ft | Thin self-adhesive strip for the gaps around the door frame. Almost invisible once it is on. | Mixed reports on adhesion and on how long it lasts. Wipe the frame with rubbing alcohol before you stick it. |
| Humidity TempPro TP50 Hygrometer and Thermometer | Cheap, easy-to-read, with a magnet on the back. Tells you whether the room is too dry or too damp. | The most common complaint is units dying after a month or so. At this price, buy it from a seller with easy returns. |
I haven’t owned every item here. Picks are based on specs, warranty terms and thousands of owner reviews. Small items like these often drop in price during Black Friday week.
FAQ
Does El Niño mean a warm winter?
For much of the northern U.S. and the East, NOAA favors above-average temperatures this winter. That is a tilt in the odds over three months, not a guarantee. Cold snaps and big storms can still happen.
Will my heating bill be lower this winter?
If you live in a region where a warmer winter is favored, your heating use may be somewhat lower. Your bill also depends on fuel prices and on how well your home holds heat, so it can still go up.
What does El Niño mean for the South?
NOAA favors a wetter-than-average winter across the South, with more frequent storm systems. Temperature has equal chances in much of the Southwest and Gulf Coast.
Do nor'easters increase with El Niño?
For the New York City area, storms in an El Niño pattern often track offshore, which can lead to more nor'easters than normal. Whether they bring rain or snow depends on the temperature.
Is window film worth it in a mild winter?
Yes, if you have old or single-pane windows. It costs little, cuts drafts and condensation, and helps on the cold and windy days that still happen in mild winters.
Sources
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO diagnostic discussion
- NOAA: U.S. Winter Outlook (Dec–Feb)
- NBC New York: NYC area will see a warmer and wetter winter, NOAA predicts
- U.S. Department of Energy: Weatherstripping
Email me at hello@thelowbillhome.com. I read every message, and when a rate, a rule or a product changes, I update the guide.
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